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Can somebody explain order of production and dealer allotment?

23K views 86 replies 24 participants last post by  eric102 
#1 ·
Just wondering, in what "order" are the vehicles made in the SoA factory? Is the first car that is made the first car that was ordered (based on VON #)? For example, will somebody who ordered a 2016 OB two weeks ago get it before somebody who orders one today? Or is it somewhat random, in that the factory produces X-amount of a certain model one day and then a different one the next day.

Also, how does dealer allotment work? Would that mean that if a dealership already sold its August allotment, a pre-order would not arrive until September? Scenario: Person A orders from Dealership A on June 6th. Dealership A's August allotment is already sold. Does Person A get a September delivery date? If Person B orders from Dealership B on June 22nd, and Dealership B has not already sold out its August allotment, does person B get his/her car before person A, even though he/she ordered it at a later date?

Wow, sorry to ramble. Didn't realize this would turn into an LSAT question.
 
#2 ·
This is a very complex issue that involves many variables - there is no simple answer to this.
If you take a tour of any car assembly line, you will learn more, how it works. I took quite a few here and in EU.

So, in simple terms it's called "demand planning"; that is based on statistics what dealers (or car rental companies) in various regions frequently order. This planning changes quite frequently throughout production years. Dealers have absolutely no input into this assembly plant decision making...
 
#3 ·
I work in the fleet world, and the biggest issue right now is the transportation of the vehicles on the rail cars. When a vehicle is being produced, it is assigned essentially a batch number of which rail it will go on. This essentially leaves several weeks for something to happen to the rail car or for it to be reassigned as only 3% of rail cars are assigned for the automotive industry.

It happens all the time where vehicles are delivered "out of order", and most of the time it is not due to the manufacturer's fault. There is also the delivery side from the rail yards to the dealership via truck transport.
 
#4 ·
... the biggest issue right now is the transportation of the vehicles on the rail cars.
While it may not be the only issue, it is no doubt a significant one. SOA doesn't want completed vehicles sitting outside the factory waiting for rail cars or transport trucks.

In the case of my 2015 Legacy, the 'Released' date (the date the car rolled out of the factory) and the 'Rail Ship' date were the same day.
 
#5 ·
First - sort of. The central control room has an algorithm that they use to figure out the best way to make cars once they hit the production schedule. Keep in mind that you have three different sections working. Body shop has to build the metal bodies, and that's pretty straightforward. They can make those in whatever sequence the CCR needs. Then paint shop has to paint them - and if a car isn't right upon inspection, it's liable to get pulled and sent around for re-spray, touch up, etc. And they also like to color block cars - running 50 black ones, then 50 blue ones, so they don't have to clean the lines and waste solvent.

Ends up with a huge 'trainyard' full of cars on the overhead conveyors in all sorts of painted bodies, and then those are fed to trim shop. They already figured out what they're going to run, because the seats and a lot of other components are loaded onto racks in production sequence. Normally you can figure 8 weeks, because it usually is first in first out based upon orders. But you could have a situation where the factory was scheduled to run 100 cars that weren't ordered for anyone, just regular dealer inventory, and that car happens to match your order. In that case they MIGHT bump your order up. But we have no control whatsoever on that.

Now, to section 2 - allocation. Subaru gives each dealer a certain number of cars each month to sell, based upon a myriad of guides that I really have no idea what they are. Orders come from that allocation pool. And if your dealer uses up their pool for the month, they're done until the next month. So your scenario is exactly correct - you could have ordered from Dealer A last week and have a delivery date of September, while you could order from Dealer B today and still get the car in August.
 
#9 ·
Re-tooling in assembly plants normally takes place in August (for 1 or 2 weeks) - but, it may vary by different assembly plants. Some have it done earlier ...
So, by the end of August, MY 16 cars may be in transit to dealers.
 
#7 ·
On top of it, if your dealer doesn't have the one that you want, they trade among themselves (almost daily) and they can locate the car that you want from any other dealer that may have your desired (or almost desired) configuration...this is for those, who do not order cars with exact specs....
Mind you, typically you get the best deal on a car that dealer has sitting on his lot...
 
#8 ·
Mild clarification - you forgot two words. 'they can TRY TO locate the car you want'... It still may not exist out there.

Once you get past 200 miles out, at least for us, we try to trailer any dealer trades in. And that increases the price. And if we don't have anything on our lot that the other dealer wants in return, regardless of whether we have a customer that wants the car or not, they may not trade with us.

And for assorted reasons, dealership A may simply not do business with dealership B. That's why as a salesman I don't do locates with my customers sitting at my desk - I have my manager do them.
 
#17 ·
Yeah I wasn't thinking body style but more of chassis. The 2 Subaru ones are Impreza which is the platform for crosstrek, WRX, and XV. Legacy and outback are the one platform.

I don't think sharing one technology such as the nav / infotainment can be called one platform. It should be standard for user experience but isn't related to car platform as generally car platform change the electronics because of different level of brands like Toyota Camry / Lexus ES. But it makes no sense for Subaru which is one brand to have different electronics that make it harder for the consumer.

Moving to one platform saves money in the long run but it also poses a lot of difficulties and requires a lot of R&D, change and money. That's why I'm so skeptical about all of subaru's cars moving to one platform in 2017. I'm sure they'll get there but I don't think all of them will be on the same platform in one year. It'll take more time than that.
 
#18 ·
In certain situations you could get your car the same time the one ordered 2 weeks ago arrives. Let's say person A ordered a Tungsten Outback 2.5 Limited loaded out with eyesight etc... And you, person B ordered the same car 2 weeks later. If person A ordered toward the end of the production run for that color, interior, and accessory setup, they'll have to wait a month until their car gets into the next queue for exterior, interior colors, as well as accessory details. 2 weeks later, customer B shows up and orders the exact same car. The queue still has 3 slots left for the production run. In this scenario, both cars will be assembled at the same time. Depending on the location of customer A and B, both cars could be shipped the same day, and arrive the same day to their respective dealers.
 
#29 ·
Some version of Subaru Levorg (already being sold in Japan) may come to these shores as early as 2017 ...

Subaru Levorg 2015 australia, price, usa | 2016 / 2017 Car Models

It will compete directly with Honda Pilot, Toyota Highlander and Nissan Pathfinder. Perhaps including (finally) the plug in diesel....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subaru_Levorg
Nope, LEVORG is basically a WRX with a bit more space behind the rear axle. That layout will never stretch to the van or room for 7. There is a chance that LEVORG will come to US if Subaru can find a way to produce more of them. It seems that the current LEVORG production is (easily) consumed by JDM market with European markets coming on-line this year.

Subaru has a 7 seater in the pipeline but adding a van to the lineup is really a pipe dream.
 
G
#34 ·
The local dealership went from having 5 2015 OB's on their website yesterday to having 15 today! One of them is a green 3.6 that's been showing as "in transit" for a few days. I wonder if Subaru is dumping whatever '15 OB inventory they have to start making room for the '16's?
 
#36 ·
No
Typically when you see this type of dealer inventory change the dealer has bought inventory from another dealer that had too much inventory. Example say a Florida Subaru dealer had all kinds of stock and was only moving a couple of cars a month vs a Colorado dealer is selling cars off the truck before the truck arrives and has no inventory on the lot - dealers do purchase inventory from other dealers and that many cars in such a short period of time would suggest they picked up excess inventory from another dealer some place.
 
#39 ·
^^ for that matter, Chrysler 300 sits on Mercedes Benz S (SL) a.k.a. W222 class platform as well as suspension... since the days, when they (DB) owned Chrysler...MB "shared" that platform with Chrysler...
If you ever drove one (Chrysler 300) you would notice that right away!...LOL
 
#41 ·
So if SoA goes on its two-week shutdown beginning next week, do certain employees remain working during that time, with the sole purpose of changing the production lines over to the 2016 model? I know Carl said it doesn't actually take a long time to change it over, but I'm curious to know when it actually happens. Also, when do the employees learn how to implement the yearly changes? Do those whose car is being made in the first few batches face a higher risk of getting a flawed vehicle or even a lemon, due to a possible learning curve?
 
#49 ·
It's SIA (Subaru of Indiana Automotive), not SoA (Subaru of America). Nit pick...

And the people that will work during shutdown are maintenance crews doing all the big stuff they haven't been able to do. I've worked some days during shutdowns in the past - that's when you get the man lifts out, clean the rafters of built up dust, and in general all of the cleaning things that you can't do while production is running.

Changing the rolling racks on the trim & final production line takes a couple of hours, and that's it. That's why there's a model change team that's been working for months getting things ready, so it's a smooth transition. Really, the only issue when coming back from shutdown is getting used to working again after a couple weeks off. Again, been there, done that, way too many times...

:wink2:
 
#43 ·
Logistics (which includes distribution and shipping) is subject to many factors and that includes weather related delays (a.k.a. acts of God) as well as mechanical break downs. It's just not that simple as many people think!

How many times you came to the airport and your flight was delayed or cancelled?

With freight, you just don't hear about it....
 
#45 ·
Dealer allotment and orders....
Dealers in New England right now only have a certain number of orders to "fill" in a given month (not calendar but fiscal). If you placed an order June 25th, it would "push through" to Subaru somewhere around the 6th. If that dealership had their order slots filled, then it wouldn't fill until the following month! So it's possible to get a car sooner from one dealer than another, but that would be REALLY shady if they didn't tell you that they had already filled their orders! They have no reason to not tell you, so ask! Your salesman may not know how this system works because they're not the one actually placing the orders, so ask a Sales Manager.
 
#50 ·
I just got off the phone with my salesman. Apparently, Subaru's Northeast customers do not get VON numbers. He told me that our OB is in level "2" status on a scale of 1-6 where 1 means it's being built and should be delivered soon. He also said that ordered cars don't count towards the dealer's allocation. He knows nothing about the free sunglasses (or 3 years of Starlink). Order was placed 6/12 and still no email from Subaru.
 
#53 ·
Ordered May 4, yesterday got ETA July 10

We ordered our 2.5 limited on May 4 and heard nothing until yesterday, June 24. The salesman said the ETA is July 10 or maybe a couple days sooner.

The last six VIN numbers are just above 360000.
 
#58 ·
I don't know why, but every few years a myth arises on this forum somewhere: That customer orders count against dealer allocation. Subaru orders are not part of the monthly allocation process. They're batched daily in sequence and get a higher priority than cars allocated to dealers for inventory. Ordered cars don't come from dealer allocation and don't count against it.

This applies only to true "sold" orders entered in the Subaru system. A dealer can fill an order from their allocation in order to make the sale sooner, and they often do so. That's not really an order and that car does in fact come from the dealer's allocation.

Subaru buyers order more frequently than most other makers. As of the 2014 model year, nearly 1/3 of Subarus were ordered. Subaru is not unaware of this and their system is set up to deliver ordered cars to buyers as quickly as possible.
 
#59 ·
I don't know why, but every few years a myth arises on this forum somewhere: That customer orders count against dealer allocation. Subaru orders are not part of the monthly allocation process. They're batched daily in sequence and get a higher priority than cars allocated to dealers for inventory. Ordered cars don't come from dealer allocation and don't count against it.
Is there some separate limit? Why is it that someone ordering a 2016 from Grand today will get their Outback in September, while someone doing a factory order from a lower volume dealer will get theirs in August?
 
#63 ·
Distributor control is only in the New England region. For the rest of the county it works like this:

Individual customer orders are produced in sequence, more or less regardless of the dealer from whom you order the car.

Allocations, on the other hand, are those cars produced on spec for general dealer inventory. These are the cars on the internet when you do an inventory search. They're allocated to dealers based a number of factors like sales volume, customer satisfaction scores, compliance, periodic special incentives, etc. Larger dealers generally get more cars as long as they keep selling them. Smaller dealers generally get fewer cars but may get more cars if they sell more cars.

Also important to note: What a dealer "says" about estimated delivery is almost universally unreliable. Only your order status sheet is accurate. Anything else should be disregarded. One dealer may be honest and say late September. Another may lie and say late August. Both know the truth, but the latter dealer also knows that you're on the hook, and they can get your business by over-promising. They know that most customers wan't cancel when late August rolls around and the car's not here yet.
 
#64 ·
I contact Grand and Moyer in April trying to order a 15. But they told me they can't since they have reached their quota/allocation limit. So maybe there is an annual limit? Whatever it is, it is not true that you can always order one regardless the dealer's allocation situation.
 
#69 ·
Yes, that's correct. From my experience last year, direct orders also fall within the monthly allotments. I had my scheduled delivery date 4 months away, while those who ordered around the same time from a different dealer got it a 2 months earlier. Both marked as "sold orders".

So no separate queue for factory orders vs monthly allotments based on dealer, SOA conversation and my experience.
 
#71 ·
I have another question (and pardon me if it has already been answered): how long does it take for an Outback to be built? I'm talking actual factory production time, from the first cut of steel to the time it leaves the factory. Are we talking hours? days? Just curious.
 
#72 ·
Technically about 12 hours, if everything went that way, which it doesn't quite.

First cut of steel is the blanking line, where coils of steel are cookie cutter made into rough flat shapes. Let's say that they run 800 hood blanks, which are then put into piles about 200 pieces high. Those piles of blanks are set up to be run later in the shift / day on the transfer presses. The transfer presses will then later in the day / shift start running hoods, and they'll fill maybe 30 racks with shaped hood panels, for the body shop.

Later the body shop will take that panel, load it into the robots, and have those start welding the entire hood assembly together - the exterior skin and the interior support structure. Once those are done, it'll go into another rack and be taken over to the body assembly line, where it'll be put onto the partially assembled body that's moving down the line.

Once the body is done, it'll go to a body inspection line, where they smooth off burrs and make sure everything is good. Then the white body (as it's called at this point) goes into paint shop. Paint shop washes the whole body by immersion dip (to get the body dust off - paint shop is over pressured inside, so no dust can blow in from outside) and then ED dipped. Oven time to bake it, then start painting the layers, with oven time in between.

Finally after being done in paint, it'll come into trim shop (now as a painted body) and from the time it hits team one (where you simply have a painted shell) until the time it rolls off the final inspection line (finished car, ready for sale) is about 3 hours.

SIA's website
 
#73 ·
^^^ Carl, are you sure about those 12 hrs or 15 hrs to assemble a Subaru at SIA? That would explain the poor quality upon exit...hmmm
That beats Toyota with about half of the employees (than Toyota has) on the assembly plant floor...WOW

That's pretty "blazing" speed compared to everybody else...what do they do so differently than Toyota, VW or many other assembly plants in the U.S.?

If they spit out some 21000 cars per month (based on 8 hours shift schedule working 24/7) that's about 700 cars per day....that doesn't add up to 12 hrs nor 15 hrs per car...
 
#77 ·
Tac time in trim is, last time I heard, about 1 minute, 15 seconds. They also only run 2 shifts, normal production is 8 hours, with the option of 2 hours overtime per shift, with 8 hour Saturdays.

The 12 - 15 hour period is the time the material is being worked - once the assembly line is full, one is rolling out the door every minute and a quarter. You can't just go, hey, let's figure out how long it takes to make a car based upon starting with making hood blanks - they don't just run one, they'll run 500 of them. Same with the racks of parts coming from the transfer parts - they'll run enough for the entire next shift's worth of production of each part at a time.

So those piles of blanks, once cut, may sit for 3 hours before they're pressed, and that rack of hoods may sit for 4 hours until it's used. I'm not counting that 7 hours in the total production time. I DO count the 2 hours or so that it takes the car to bake and then cool down through each paint cycle in the paint shop, though.

And when the plant was built back in '89, they included enough spare room inside for a second blanking line, an additional transfer press, and an additional bumper mold should it be needed. Which it is / was.

Last time my daughter talked to me about what they're putting out, it was just a little over 700 per day, Outbacks and Legacy.
 
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