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Interesting Tesla Model 3 fun fact.

53K views 482 replies 49 participants last post by  TheBlueSubaru 
#1 ·
I recently camped out to reserve a Model 3 in Seattle. I had a great time meeting many new people in line. I camped for 15 hours and was in the top 10 in line. By the time the dealer opened at 10 am there were over 400 people in line in Seattle and Bellevue each. In making new friends I discovered that of the 10 or so people that were hanging out. 7 of them had subarus. They were excited about getting the electric car but would be keeping their subbie after the T3 arrives. I am on that list as well. I know this is the Gen 5 blog but did anyone else reserve the T car? Is there an all electric outback or Forrester in the works? If built like the Tesla (battery is the frame) these cars would make an outstanding platform.
 
#7 ·
I'm not ready for another car, but in a few years an electric car is on my list for consideration as a second family car used for grocery getting and whatnot. By then we'll know if the T3 is ready for prime time or not. The Outback will stay as primary because I love the utility of the format.
 
#9 ·
Like a couple of others have indicated, I'll let you guys be the beta-testers. I think it's a bit ridiculous to put down $1k now to get a car that you won't see for possibly 2-3 years and which has never been produced before.

And yes, I know Tesla is saying they'll sell them in 2017 as a 2018 but considering the demand and the fact that Tesla has no previous experience selling that volume of cars and anticipated part shorages from suppliers, I think it will 2018 before the first ones show up and it will be late 2018-2019 before most of those reservations are actually filled.

I've no objections to electric cars. The range and cost suck right now but considering the excitement over the T3 it is likely other manufacturers will take note of the interest and push harder on improving their own electric cars. Much like Apple has driven smartphone development and adding airbags to cars has driven development of new safety features on cars, this could drive development of better electric vehicles with superior range.
 
#12 ·
Like a couple of others have indicated, I'll let you guys be the beta-testers.
Kind of like buying the 3rd generation Subaru after its introduction to US market.

think it's a bit ridiculous to put down $1k now to get a car that you won't see for possibly 2-3 years and which has never been produced before.
Tesla has met all its delivery dates for three models over 10 years. Putting down $1K does a couple things.

1. It gets you inline for a delivery date for one of the most popular cars in US history. If you read Forbes or Fortune and the Wall St. auto industry analysts they are all issuing buy recs for Tesla.

2. It's about financing the future of zero green house gas emissions, US tech lead and US jobs. It's fun to be able to do it.


no objections to electric cars.
Chuckle as he objects to EV.

The range and cost suck right now but considering the excitement over the T3 it is likely other manufacturers will take note of the interest and push harder on improving their own electric cars.
The range of 213 miles is excellent. A charge a week for average driver and Tesla's will be charging at home every night.

I can ski Mt. Hood (120 miles roundtrip), run to Astoria at the shore for a day fishing (186 miles round trip), all on one charge. Major weekend trips. My daily commute which is well above average at 100 miles a day, I get in two days worth before needing to recharge but again, I can charge at home and my employer is putting in charging stations this year as we already have 3 Model S's and few Leafs, Voltes and Plug-in Prius's and now four Tesla 3's on the way.

There's a reason that the Tesla 3 is a sales phenom, it gets it all right. And Tesla has been very methodical in ramping up to the design and production using previous models and building on their success.

To infinity and beyond.
 
#10 ·
Range and price is good on this one, if you live on the East or West coast. 1/4 the operating cost, same price as Accord after gov rebates, best in class interior volume and 0-60in the 5's. For the 90% of people who live in cities this is an ideal car and it's not the first model. There will be problems due to the demand but by 2020 I think electric cars will start cutting into gas sales at an exponential rate. I'm not going to reserve one though...
 
#11 ·
I also got a reservation in for a T3. Really, the only all electric car I've seen that could possibly replace my Outback is the Tesla X (I basically need a car that can tow and haul other things I need for basic home maintenance). Since the Tesla X is so steep in price, I plan to just keep my Outback once I get my Tesla 3.
 
#14 ·
It's on my shortlist, but I will not be putting down a deposit. I will put down a deposit when I can have a delivery date in less than 3 months. So, if they hit their late '17 target release, that will likely be sometime mid '18, early '19. So I don't plan on buying one for a while. Unless a used 85/90D with autopilot comes on the market for less than 40k between now and then......
 
#17 ·
You are thinking of the X, not the 3. The 3 is a much better looking piece of machinery than the X. The design group that made the X should be disbanded and asked to never design anything again, IMO. It looks like a beached whale with a Model S snout.

This is the model 3.

 
#24 ·
It's an interesting phenomena; maybe a paradigm shift. We'll see. The 300,000 orders Tesla took this week beats the March sales totals for any brand. Plus the $1000 down payment each order required represents a 300 million dollar interest-free loan for what could be 18 to 36 months. Not too shabby.
However, today I drove across Wisconsin in a cold rain with temps around 33°. Crossed into the U.P. where it was snowing hard and the temp was 31°. Challenging driving conditions, but no drama with the Outback. 312 miles total today for work and I'll do twice that tomorrow. Glad I have the Outback.
 
#27 ·
312 miles total today for work and I'll do twice that tomorrow. Glad I have the Outback.
Now there's a baseline to go by.

90% of American's have a 30 mile commute each day. One charge will cover a work week with the "gas station" in the garage so a 200 mile per day commute (99.9% of US workers) is doable.

Funny how those opposed to EV's come with wildly exaggerated situations as their examples.
 
#31 ·
I believe that any company should be able to sell any product (legal products) to any ready and willing buyer. If somebody "feels" that they are going to save the earth by buying an electric car - go for it! But why, oh why, make me pay for it?

Please, just don’t think electric vehicles are “zero emission.” (see paragraph 4: Devonshire Research Group Announces the Issuance of Tesla's Intellectual Property Research Analysis) Not only is the cost of producing the batteries bad for the environment, so is the disposal. And, as previously mentioned, where exactly do these “believers” think this “zero emission” electricity comes from?

Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla) has received over $4,900,000,000.00 dollars (yep, that’s 4.9 BILLION dollars) in government support for the various businesses he runs (Elon Musk's growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government subsidies - LA Times). The Tesla 3 is expected to sell for about $35k. After even more “subsidies” it could actually come in at $25k.

The federal government has a HORRIFIC track record when investing in new “green” technology. Want some examples? Here are just a few:

Evergreen Solar ($25 million)*
SpectraWatt ($500,000)*
Solyndra ($535 million)*
Beacon Power ($43 million)*
Nevada Geothermal ($98.5 million)
SunPower ($1.2 billion)
First Solar ($1.46 billion)
Babcock and Brown ($178 million)
EnerDel’s subsidiary Ener1 ($118.5 million)*
Amonix ($5.9 million)
Fisker Automotive ($529 million)
Abound Solar ($400 million)*
A123 Systems ($279 million)*
Willard and Kelsey Solar Group ($700,981)*
Johnson Controls ($299 million)
Schneider Electric ($86 million)
Brightsource ($1.6 billion)
ECOtality ($126.2 million)
Raser Technologies ($33 million)*
Energy Conversion Devices ($13.3 million)*
Mountain Plaza, Inc. ($2 million)*
Olsen’s Crop Service and Olsen’s Mills Acquisition Company ($10 million)*
Range Fuels ($80 million)*
Thompson River Power ($6.5 million)*
Stirling Energy Systems ($7 million)*
Azure Dynamics ($5.4 million)*
GreenVolts ($500,000)
Vestas ($50 million)
LG Chem’s subsidiary Compact Power ($151 million)
Nordic Windpower ($16 million)*
Navistar ($39 million)
Satcon ($3 million)*
Konarka Technologies Inc. ($20 million)*
Mascoma Corp. ($100 million)

* Filed for bankruptcy.

The government (ultimately, that means me - and some of you - the taxpayers) should not be in the game of choosing winners and losers. As noted above, the track record it has pretty much sucks. I just HATE the fact that I have to contribute to companies and buyers with subsidies. I didn’t ask anyone to throw in $10k when I just bought my Outback. Why do you think you have a right to reach in my back pocket to subsidies what you “believe in?”

Please understand, I’m from Wisconsin and wish there was global warming!

:grin2:
 
#46 ·
I guess saying that 90% of people won't be taking long trips in remote areas is correct for I do not find much traffic there :) And I like it that way....

Who bets a penny that most people who live 4 hours from the Grand Canyon have not been there?

But while I find plenty to like about Tesla and this model in particular, I am very skeptical of the "bringing EV to the average family" claim.

An average family made 53-54,000 in 2015 unless Google took me for a ride. I just cannot picture a realistic scenario where more than a fraction of such families gets a new EV, let alone a luxury one with many question marks about its longevity and durability (new thing, new maker, etc). A slightly used Prius? I bet that makes a ton of sense in many cases.

Now, does the T3 make sense as a second car? Sure it does. But at what income level? At what income level is a new T3 a serious proposition as second car for a family of two car enthusiasts? For a family of one enthusiast? I am sure we are moving far from the average...

My gut feeling is that not only the people putting money down on the T3, but also those likely to get any T3 in the foreseeable future will have an average income FAR exceeding that of the average Joe's...which I am sure is already true of any non-Tesla "35k" car. The average price of a sold new car is irrelevant. How is that a measure of accessibility? That would be the average transaction of all cars, from the Ferrari to the clunker. I bet more than a penny that this average has nothing to do with 30+k....

I wish Tesla success. I would love a T3 as a DD. But while I cannot wait to see what 7 pax Subaru will offer for 40-45,000 out-the-door, I cannot see a Tesla coming home any time soon.
 
#47 ·
An average family made 53-54,000 in 2015 unless Google took me for a ride.
The estimated average transaction price of a new car or truck sold in the U.S. in April was $33,560
Tesla 3 is $35,000. And remember, no gasoline costs, no oil change costs, no tuneup costs so an average savings of $1,200 a year.

It's why sales are exploding. Average people are buying into the future they want to see.
 
#53 ·
320K deposits, does not represent what they will sell. I think they would be happy if half of the people that put a deposit down do not back out of the sale in the 3 or 4 years that it takes for the Model 3 to get to the public. And although there are more moving parts on an ICE car, the fact that they have been around so long, I'd say they are probably more reliable than where an EV is right now. JMHO of course.
 
#55 ·
Tesla track record is 97% fulfilment vs. cancelations. This is over two major model releases in eight years. Tesla 3 will have similar results.

Tesla has met all its production date promises over those two models and eight years. Delivery on the Tesla III will start in 12 months not "3 or 4 years".

Relibability of the Tesla's over eight years is outstanding.

Just the humble facts of course.
 
#57 ·
The 1,000 mile trip scenario.

1. Charge at home 170 miles.
2. First charge 30 minutes, 350 miles.
3. Second charge 30 minutes, 420 miles.
4. Third charge 30 minutes, 690 miles
5. Fourth charge 30 minutes, 860 miles
6, Fifth charge 30 minutes, 1,130 miles.

2.5 hours total for fuel and bio breaks in a Tesla III

2 hours if there's an overnight in there where the Tesla III gets a full 200 mile charge.

Probaby 30 minutes total for fuel and bio breaks in an Outback 2.5.

Plus the Tesla III does it for $75 dollars less based on $3 gas.
 
#59 ·
A) they have missed their production dates in both the S and the X.
B) it's not a sale until one takes delivery.
C) Elon himself said the average selling price will be about 42k.
D) deposits on a 1k down payment are easily more attainable than 5 or 40k on the S and X. That means the take rates will likely be far lower.
E) I say this as someone who has the intention of buying a 3 in the coming years if it makes it to market as something I still want. But I don't put down a deposit on a car that is over a year away. (Not 12 months like you indicated) best case scenario we see it Dec. 2017. Likely scenario, we see it mid 2018.
 
#60 ·
..they have missed their production dates in both the S and the X.
Interesting that none of the owners S and X model's view it that way nor were there any signification cancelations of deposits with a 97% fulfillment rate on the deposits.

The real questions on the deposits going over 300,000 and still rising with the last 100,000+ knowing they no longer get the $7,500 tax credit, will Tesla allow a "market" in selling the first 200,000 plus reservations. Likely not, folks would either give up their spot or sell the car.

. it's not a sale until one takes delivery.
But it is a $1K deposit for delivery. Not sure why anyone would confuse a deposit with a sale.


. Elon himself said the average selling price will be about 42k.
Kind of like Subaru (and all other car mfgs) base price and actual sell price with popular options. Though fair to say the base price Tesla is loaded, the Autopilot is std, the super charger is standard. Things I'd add, AWD, winter package, air suspension, 250 mile range extension, possibly a paint option.

.deposits on a 1k down payment are easily more attainable than 5 or 40k on the S and X. That means the take rates will likely be far lower.
Deposits are in proportion to sale price as one would expect. With orders exploding, the buzz and the increased delivery time if one does not make a deposit will likely keep the 97% fulfillment rate for the Tesla 3.

.. But I don't put down a deposit on a car that is over a year away.
But 300,000 plus and growing fast do is the fact on the ground.

Securing delivery date is just one reason. But as noted, helping finance the 21st century of US made, high tech, non-polluting, non-oil using automobiles is a big motivator.
 
#62 ·
Tesla has been on schedule delivering twice as many cars year over year for the last three years as we see from the graph.

Based on this four year track record, Tesla should deliver 400,000 cars in 2017 with 300,000 of those being the Tesla 3.

The first 300,000 Tesla 3's were ordered in first two days so it looks like the early adopters will get rewarded with delivery in 2017.
 

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#65 ·
Citroen DS, popular big seller had 12,000 in 1955. Ford Fiesta, world's best selling car, had 6,000 orders and 100,000 non-deposit orders and went on to deliver 787,000 the year of its launch of 2011.

Both cars had record preorders and big sales but I'm not sure you can draw much of a parallel.

Interestingly the tech sector is also claiming the Tesla.

Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research expects Tesla Motors Inc’s Model 3 to “break all records” in Consumer Tech in terms of pre-order booking dollars.
 
#68 ·
I certainly hope you dont believe half of what you post. They will not even come close to shipping 300k model 3's in 2017. period. I think their factory has a production limit around 500k a year. So if, and thats a big if, they do actually start shipping in 2017, they might be lucky to ship 150-175k cars for the year, with about 20k, if that, being model 3's.
 
#69 ·
They will not even come close to shipping 300k model 3's in 2017.
As you saw from the graphic, Tesla has managed to double shipments every year with 200,000 projected in 2016, 400,000 in 2017 would be right in line.

That would be all Tesla's, TS, TX and T3's. The mix would likely depend on the orders. If the orders are in place for 400,000 TS and TX's then T3 would be moved to 2018. I'm sure Tesla will want to ship some T3's in late 2017.

$8B in T3's and $20B in TS and TX's.
 
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