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Assuming battery technology keeps improving, the idea of full torque from 0 RPM should really be great for vehicles like the Outback. We'd not have issues like CVT transmissions, the lack of low range, auto start/stop. There will be no need for brake-based torque vectoring. Energy regenerates from the downhill climb. The Rav4 Prime is an example of things to come in the nearer term.

With the loss of the boxer engine, and Subaru's traditional mechanical AWD systems, Subaru will need a new wave of innovation to differentiate themselves from others.
 

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Here is another link to deepen the confusion:Subaru Goes Big on Electrification in New Plan, Even As CEO Admits EVs Are a Tough Sell - The Truth About Cars

In the link posted by the OP, I think the writer got something mixed up, or something got lost in the translation. While it may be possible that S can get close to a goal of 40% hybrid/electric sales by 2030 (the new global platform is supposed to have room for all that), it does not make sense to me or seem doable that they would then become 100% electric five years later. Maybe somebody meant to write instead that by 2035, S. would have an electric offering in every model line?
In the TTAC link above, the Sube exec has it right that the USA is and will be a tough nut to crack for electrics. IMO they will remain niche vehicles, until the batteries evolve to eliminate range anxiety, and can be recharged as easily as filling a gas tank is. And, I agree that the only “successful” pure EV brand has been Tesla. But EM is now moving on to China with his Model 3, having IMO sold as many Tesla cars here as he can right now. Then he can maybe keep the shebang rolling for another year or three with the pickup truck, as Tesla is a day to day operation that relies on rabbits out of the hat, and not a real car company, at least not yet.
Global light car sales last year were about 85 million and around 2% were “electric”, IIRC, and some of the stats I have seen count certain hybrids as “electric”. That’s a long way from being a mainstay type of vehicle and even farther from replacing the global fleet. Every carmaker of any importance will be making battery-powered vehicles, and also be in a worry about if there will be enough customers for them. I think that's what makes Toyota hesitant about jumping in with two feet into electric. They want it to be a viable propulsion system across many model lines (like their current hybrid system) and maybe they don't believe in electric for that, and they don't think the market is as big as they would need it to be. But maybe Subaru could do it, with their more limited model lineup, and their cultivated customer base, but that still wouldn't mean Subaru is going all electric.
 

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Going hybrid like the Rav4 Prime is a definite step in the right direction. Full-electric in a reasonably priced mainstream vehicle depends on future battery development to keep costs down and range increased.

The other huge unknown is to what extent self-driving will have been achieved by 2035. Those of us on a car forum will probably keep buying cars, but a lot of the population just wants transportation and a driverless taxi or something similar could be a game changer. From a capital efficiency point of view, having our cars be shut off doing nothing for 20 hours a day isn't cost-effective. We also own vehicles larger than necessary for daily commutes because of the occasional need for capacity. When driverless fleets are commonplace you simply request a vehicle with the required capacity, whether it be a truck or van or whatever.
 

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Promises sure are easy to make when they're fifteen years away.
There are quite a lot of problems to be solved: Charging time - right now you can pump 20 gallon of gas in 5 minutes - that will take you 400 miles. But current EV's will require an hour - and maybe 150 miles on that charge - imagine the size of the charging stations for 100 vehicles an hour. In colder climates - battery capacity is less - there is more of a demand for the heater / seat heat / rear window defroster. What about people who don't have garages?

The other aspect is an EV uses more energy than an ICE. Between the power transmission loss, the heat generated from the charging - it's a net loss. I can't believe solar and wind are going to generate enough electricity.

It may be possible 15 years out - but right now it sounds like a Popular Mechanic's article from 1960.
 

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The other aspect is an EV uses more energy than an ICE. Between the power transmission loss, the heat generated from the charging - it's a net loss. I can't believe solar and wind are going to generate enough electricity.

It may be possible 15 years out - but right now it sounds like a Popular Mechanic's article from 1960.
I agree that it's around 15 years out - nobody is expecting it to happen within the next 5 years.

It's difficult to do a true apples to apples comparison for energy efficiency. While it's true that transmission of electricity costs energy, and charging generates waste heat and isn't perfectly efficient, petroleum fuels also have transmission costs - whether it be by pipeline, supertanker, or whatever means is used to transport and process the petroleum. Once at the engine, combustion engines are far less efficient than electrical motors, generating a lot more waste heat than EV's. Electric cars also get a double boost of efficiency because of regenerative braking - another area where combustion engines generate waste heat from friction instead of recovering it.

The biggest problem facing solar and wind power is energy storage. It generates more than necessary sometimes and less than necessary at other times - that's where the improvements in battery (or other energy storage - gravity or whatever) is another technological need to make these things viable. Electric cars being charged is one form of energy storage. My nephew has solar photovoltaic and generates enough electricity to charge his Nissan Leaf - though granted he's not a super high mileage driver and his situation doesn't apply to everyone.

Yes we're not there yet and don't have all of the technology to get there, but it's definitely coming, whether it's 10, 15, or 20 years. This is not like popular mechanics "flying cars" that I think are never going to be commonplace transportation for the masses.
 

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Brucey
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There are quite a lot of problems to be solved: Charging time - right now you can pump 20 gallon of gas in 5 minutes - that will take you 400 miles. But current EV's will require an hour - and maybe 150 miles on that charge - imagine the size of the charging stations for 100 vehicles an hour.
The other aspect is an EV uses more energy than an ICE. Between the power transmission loss, the heat generated from the charging - it's a net loss. I can't believe solar and wind are going to generate enough electricity.
I think the idea is controlling CO2, NOx emissions is going to be easier at a large facility than millions of small ones.

I agree solar and wind isn't ever going to make it beyond supplemental. Nuclear is capable of supplying 100 percent of the grid yesterday and is zero emission so of course everyone opposes it.

I believe the current Tesla can charge 50 percent in 20 minutes. The battery tech is getting there and so is the network.

But they both still got a ways to go.


I definitely agree on the "it sounds like a popular mechanics issue".

Definitely something to work towards but I wouldn't put money on it.
 

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I don’t think with current (not a pun) technology there is nonway to charge a battery as fast as it takes to fill a gas tank. The only way I think all electric cars can make it for long trips is to have a swappable battery where a discharged unit can be exchanged for a fully charged one. I think hydrogen fuel cells are a better idea. With less pollution that was caused in generating electricity from fossil fuels.
 

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We can discuss the technical aspects endlessly. What amuses me is what we as consumers and car fans have been promised so much in the way of "disruptive" changes, compared to what we have actually gotten. In 2011, Carlos Ghosn predicted that electric cars would be 10% of the market in 2020, and of course the Nissan leaf would lead the way. (Carlos Ghosn, Now a Fugitive, Was an Electric-Car Visionary) How true did that turn out? And, don't forget all of the top exec predictions years ago that we would right now be riding around in fully autonomous drive cars, and how that would change the whole world. IIRC I have read Ford, VW, and Daimler Benz execs backpedalling on this just recently. And BTW what's up with the flying Uber? Not to mention Tesla hyper Boring tunnels, etc.

The biggest thing to have come out of all the hype may be the electric push scooters that popped up in cities and on urban interstates, and were ditched by their renters in the nearest river at the end of the ride. There are the fast charge stations that have popped up at newer shopping centers and such, and I have seen a car using one of them exactly once. Unfortunately there have also been people killed by autonomous vehicles allowed to go rogue and by jerks in Teslas who thought the car would drive itself.

I think for us Subaru fans, we have a new floorpan that allows for hybrid and electric powertrains and we will see some of that in the next decade, and they'll try to put a twist on it to avoid the stigma of badge engineering. And the other usual improvements to keep up with the competition. That's about it IMO and maybe that's enough for them to try to keep up with.
 

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Brucey
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Carlos Ghosn predicted that electric cars would be 10% of the market in 2020, and of course the Nissan leaf would lead the way. (Carlos Ghosn, Now a Fugitive, Was an Electric-Car Visionary) How true did that turn out?
I was curious so I looked it up:

Around 2-3% depending on source.

This is more than manual transmissions bought.

 

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Three different Tesla models (S/X/3), the Jaguar i-pace, the Porsche Taycan, and Audi e-tron are already here with electric AWD vehicles.

Although none of these would interest me right now as something I would buy, they represent a mark on the wall for where the technology is at today. They will all get better, driving ranges will improve, AWD technology will improve, and last but not least, prices will drop.

Subaru might be in the position of playing perpetual catch-up, not leading, if they think it will take them 15 years to get there.
 

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Tesla Inc's market capitalization has eclipsed the combined values of General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co .
Well now that you put it that way, maybe I wanted to say that Tesla is not IMO even a real company. It's a venture of some kind taking advantage of the current fashion that can give schemes like itself bigger on-paper "valuation" than others that satisfy the old fashioned "business fundamentals" and make a profit.

Tesla is dependent on their celebrity CEO to one-up himself on a regular basis in order to attract new money, since to date they have not found a way to make a sustained profit from their "business" activities.
 

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The other huge unknown is to what extent self-driving will have been achieved by 2035. Those of us on a car forum will probably keep buying cars, but a lot of the population just wants transportation and a driverless taxi or something similar could be a game changer. From a capital efficiency point of view, having our cars be shut off doing nothing for 20 hours a day isn't cost-effective. We also own vehicles larger than necessary for daily commutes because of the occasional need for capacity. When driverless fleets are commonplace you simply request a vehicle with the required capacity, whether it be a truck or van or whatever.
Driverless taxi's: That may work in the southern states. But in a northern climate where we have snow / ice - I can't ever see a car being able to drive in inclement weather. Here in Minnesota, some winter days it's hard to read the lines on the road. Also, I think a lot of entrances / exits / merge ramps would have to be redesigned. If we all have to keep going to work from 8:00 to 5:00 it will still require the same number of driverless taxi's - as us employed people use everyday.
 

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Well now that you put it that way, maybe I wanted to say that Tesla is not IMO even a real company. It's a venture of some kind taking advantage of the current fashion that can give schemes like itself bigger on-paper "valuation" than others that satisfy the old fashioned "business fundamentals" and make a profit.

Tesla is dependent on their celebrity CEO to one-up himself on a regular basis in order to attract new money, since to date they have not found a way to make a sustained profit from their "business" activities.
"celebrity CEO"...you mean our resident immigrant genius who's bringing manned launch capability back to the US and on a dime(would you launch on
Boeing...), sourcing materials from companies in all fifty states and foreign?
Making a profit wasn’t part of its master plan in 2006 or 2016. In 2006, the automotive manufacturer focused on reinvesting in the business in order to make increasingly more affordable electric cars. And in 2016, reinvestment went towards developing the self-driving capability, solar roofs and battery storage as well as broadening the portfolio.
They're expected to generate $6.806 billion in revenue and a total gross profit of $1.375 billion in the fourth quarter.
Not a real company...smdh
 

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Driverless taxi's: That may work in the southern states. But in a northern climate where we have snow / ice - I can't ever see a car being able to drive in inclement weather. Here in Minnesota, some winter days it's hard to read the lines on the road. Also, I think a lot of entrances / exits / merge ramps would have to be redesigned. If we all have to keep going to work from 8:00 to 5:00 it will still require the same number of driverless taxi's - as us employed people use everyday.
Elon Musk/Tesla certainly over-promised and under-delivered on the self-driving front, and he was off by a decade or longer, but in 15 years all-weather vision systems, radar, infrared, or other sensing systems that can see through snow better than human eyes may develop. It's hard to say. Computer vision is very hard beyond the sensors - to understand what it's seeing. Human vision also has limitations but we've designed our systems around those limitations. In the same way that we now have light reflectors for the roads, we might put radar reflectors on roads that can be used to see through ice and snow. This isn't pie-in-the-sky. It's coming. I may live long enough to see it. Maybe not.

I'm glad that I've been able to experience the joys of driving my own cars. In a couple generations that might be a thing of the past for the average person. Tangentially related, it used to be that virtually everyone at age 15/16 chomped at the bit to get their driver's licenses. That has changed. In many families, instead of children begging parents to allow them to get a license at the earliest available moment, the parents are encouraging their uninterested teenagers to get a driver's license.

The long term improvement from autonomous vehicles would include downsizing so that people aren't riding 20 foot long 7 feet wide single occupant vehicles that all need to find parking. Using uber as an example though, there's been an unexpected problem that developed. Traffic actually got worse and more congested. More cars driving back and forth vs just driving one way and parking. More people deciding not to use rapid transit, and instead using a taxi-like service that needs to drive to them, drop them off, then drive somewhere else.

Another thing that's made traffic worse is delivery services for meals and other goods.

Traffic synchronization will be very difficult for the next 50 years when there will be a mix of autonomous and human driven vehicles. By then, all cars will probably be required to have transponders so that location and velocity of human driven cars will be communicated to nearby autonomous vehicles, that would give human driven cars extra space. Another issue would be drivers that purposely antagonize autonomous vehicles.
 

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in the above article

Yet, the market cap of Tesla amounts to $102 billion, as bamboozled investors and spaghetti-code algos think that the minuscule perennially money-losing auto-and-solar-panel-maker must be worth more than the giants.
 
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