That Outback figure would be 10,607 without me! 🤣

 

First time in a while that the declines are so broad; everything except Crosstrek is down MOM. And Forester is down big time.

The YOY numbers look better, except for Outback and Ascent. The latter might be in trouble; with the Gen 7 Outback's more-SUV-like-appearance, it could draw sales away and might just finish it off.

With these numbers, the outback won’t make the sales numbers of the Gen5… even with an additional, longer, 6th year of sales

Much of the Gen 5's model years didn't have to contend with both the Forester and Crosstrek being so popular and drawing sales away.

 

First time in a while that the declines are so broad; everything except Crosstrek is down MOM. And Forester is down big time.

The YOY numbers look better, except for Outback and Ascent. The latter might be in trouble; with the Gen 7 Outback's more-SUV-like-appearance, it could draw sales away and might just finish it off.

View attachment 613077


Much of the Gen 5's model years didn't have to contend with both the Forester and Crosstrek being so popular and drawing sales away.

I would say it's a combination of a general lull in the automotive sales industry right now which has been occurring in recent years and will probably continue for the foreseeable future. That combined with people being satisfied driving smaller vehicles as well as wanting to spend less and save more in terms of things like fuel economy.

I really like the Ascent personally and I was contemplating maybe getting one just because there is so much you can do with a larger vehicle, or at least so much that I could use it for. It is facing a lot of new and very stiff competition in recent years from Honda, Toyota, etc in a very cutthroat market segment. I think it's a great vehicle but all things considered the typical buyer is probably a Subaru loyalist.

 

Ascent is in major need of a redesign. While it's a solid product, I've always just thought of it as little more than Subaru's 3-row. Basically, the option for a 3 row if you are a Subie loyalist, but little else. It's arguably the most competitive market space with solid profit margins for those that dominate it. I can't imagine Subaru giving up just from the need to offer one just to ensure people come to the showroom.

 

Ascent is hemorrhaging sales, jheez. Hope they have a redesign planned soon..

 

My sister bought a 2024 Crosstrek Sport and is loving it. I tired to get her into a OB Premium, but it was a bit large for her mid-1940s garage. She was/is still a Mazda 3 5-door manual only fanatic, but really LOVES the Crosstrek, especially when she broke her ankle and said getting into the Crosstrek was much easier.

I think the End of Generation 6 OB sales decline is largely due to the massive redesign on the horizon. Loving a current model design is one thing. Loving the last year of a design is another. With a NOT the last year purchase your purchase looks new longer (most buyers do not really see the changes across Gen6 like forum members do). In fact most non-Subaru folks probably do not really recognize the Gen5-Gen6 changes, since to them a Subaru Outback is a Subaru Outback...

Then there are many who do not want to have their "new car" look dated before it is even half paid off. Also there are those who do not want to be a Gen7 (or any other car) first year Beta Tester and decide to wait.

 

The progression Forester-Outback-Ascent always reminded me of the Beetle-fastback/squareback-411. Same underpinnings and concept, just bigger as they move up in price. With Ascent IMO they touched the high mark of how far they can go with their basic platform.

As so often, Subaru is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They are not big enough to continue with a low seller (Ascent) as a placeholder in a segment where they want to appear to offer a viable choice for consumers. But if they cancel it, they'll alienate the (I assume for the most part) loyalists who bought it. It does not end up being fun to buy a discontinued car model, and people who do IMO will always end up feeling they made a mistake. Cancellation also would make it harder to break back into that segment later (ghost of Tribeca).

Ascent looked better to me as time went on, bc I find OB getting too small. But there are probably not enough customers like me to budge the sales needle much.

They have a lot riding on the 'new' OB. I'd say gen 6 is selling in lower numbers not just because the gen 6 design itself is getting old, but also the whole wagon concept. That's why gen 7 is getting the SUV makeover. Also my feeling is production is going to Japan because they want to keep extra tight watch on all gen 7 details, drive trains as well as all build factors. They don't want to blow it, and that would be EZ to do, so best to keep as much as possible of design and mfg at home. And to try to move it upmarket also in price and keep the lines OB-Solterra-Trailseeker differentiated from the mass market Forester-Impreza lines.

 

Ascent looked better to me as time went on, bc I find OB getting too small.

I’m puzzled by this statement - the Outback has done nothing but grow in size and bulk since Gen 3. The Crosstrek is now more in the size niche that the Gen 3 used to occupy than the Outback itself.

Also my feeling is production is going to Japan because they want to keep extra tight watch on all gen 7 details, drive trains as well as all build factors. They don't want to blow it, and that would be EZ to do, so best to keep as much as possible of design and mfg at home. And to try to move it upmarket also in price and keep the lines OB-Solterra-Trailseeker differentiated from the mass market Forester-Impreza lines.

The Lafayette plant is a proven production facility. The real reason they are moving the Outback to Japan is simply to free up production space in Lafayette for building EVs, as this gets them a tax break for building them here. Or so they thought at the time the decision was made.

 

Ascent looked better to me as time went on, bc I find OB getting too small. But there are probably not enough customers like me to budge the sales needle much.

I’m puzzled by this statement - the Outback has done nothing but grow in size and bulk since Gen 3. The Crosstrek is now more in the size niche that the Gen 3 used to occupy than the Outback itself.

I interpreted that a little differently; maybe because I have similar thoughts about the Outback.
For me it isn't that the Outback has changed and gotten smaller but that my needs have changed over the time I have had my Outback. It used to be about the perfect size for my daily needs as well as for traveling. While it is still adequate for my daily use, for traveling I am regularly finding it far too small. It will still work for the next couple of years until I retire but then I likely will move to something larger. I may not spend a lot of time on the road after I retire but when I do it will probably be for longer periods of time and I will need more room.

 

data here thru gen 5 Subaru Outback research pages: 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009... all years/models

PS I used to look at Joe Spitz’ site almost daily BITD
enjoyed his aggregation of data esp the interior measurements, photos, and he was the go to guy for comparison of trims
I guess he retired?

 

data here thru gen 5 Subaru Outback research pages: 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009... all years/models

PS I used to look at Joe Spitz’ site almost daily BITD
enjoyed his aggregation of data esp the interior measurements, photos, and he was the go to guy for comparison of trims
I guess he retired?

Is he still updating? It really was a great resource but some of it is out of date. He seems to have not updated frequently since the pandemic.

 

All Outbacks have been 3500~4000 lbs depending on trims, drivetrain, and accessories etc.

Base model H4 model with AT or CVT, per cars101:
Gen 1: Can’t find
Gen 2: 3,480 lbs.
Gen 3: 3,355 lbs.
Gen 4: 3,495 lbs.
Gen 5: 3,595 lbs.

Is he still updating? It really was a great resource but some of it is out of date. He seems to have not updated frequently since the pandemic.

No recent updates, per page histories. It seemed to be a great sales tool; he stood out quite uniquely as very product knowledgable by having that website!

 

Base model H4 model with AT or CVT, per cars101:
Gen 1: Can’t find
Gen 2: 3,480 lbs.
Gen 3: 3,355 lbs.
Gen 4: 3,495 lbs.
Gen 5: 3,595 lbs.


No recent updates, per page histories. It seemed to be a great sales tool; he stood out quite uniquely as very product knowledgable by having that website!

From the man himself.

Looks like he retired. Hope he enjoys it.